EDITOR'S NOTE: The headline of this story was changed on May 2, 2024, to more accurately portray the contents of the article.
Bob Bowman, 80, of Lititz, said he considers himself a “lifelong” Republican and supporter of honesty, integrity and democracy.
In Tuesday’s GOP presidential primary, Bowman picked the candidate he thought best represents those values – former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Bowman was among 10,459, or 20%, of Lancaster County’s Republican primary voters who voted for Haley, according to unofficial results. Those votes were cast well after Haley’s exit from the race on March 6 and in spite of the fact that former President Donald Trump already boasts enough delegates to secure the party’s nomination.
Statewide, Haley won about 16.6% of the 948,000 votes cast in the GOP presidential primary.
READ: Here's where to get results in the 2024 Pa. primary election for Lancaster County
Some experienced Republican politicians believe Haley’s showing is less a matter of policy and more one of personality and tone.
West Hempfield Republican state Sen. Ryan Aument said Haley and Trump align on many policy issues. Still, they have a different “rhetoric and style” that attracts different voters.
Haley’s campaign, Aument said, had a “more optimistic” tone about it.
Aument’s 36th Senatorial District covers most of the northern third of the county. The district includes Lititz Borough, where 30.7% of GOP voters cast their ballots for Haley – her highest showing across the county’s 60 municipalities.
“There is a segment of the Republican Party who the party has to speak to,” Aument said. “We cannot take them for granted.”
State Rep. Bryan Cutler, the House GOP Leader from Peach Bottom, represents Lancaster County’s Southern End, which had the lowest concentration of Haley voters.
Townships like Colerain, Little Britain, Fulton and Providence all saw less than 13% of voters choosing Haley. Yet in each, the former governor never failed to take at least 10% of the vote.
Cutler endorsed Haley early in the GOP primary. Since her exit, he‘s publicly backed Trump.
Cutler said he wasn’t certain why some voters went for Haley over Trump, but added it likely won’t matter come November when Republicans will unify behind Trump.
A ‘dangerous presumption’
Haley’s strong showing in some of the areas closest to Lancaster city compared to Trump’s biggest margins in the county’s rural areas align with polling patterns in recent years, said Berwood Yost, director of Franklin & Marshall’s Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy.
He said Haley’s supporters are typically the “traditional pro-business Republicans” who are less conservative, less likely to tie their religious beliefs to their politics and more likely to hold college degrees when compared to their Trump-aligned counterparts.
Yost said it’s difficult to predict what impact the dissenting Republicans could have on a general election. He said he’s skeptical that many of them will flip to Democratic President Joe Biden come November.
He added that moderate and independent voters will be “the key” to clinching the presidential election later this year.
READ: GOP committee races signal ‘turf wars’ in county party
Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, offered a more cautionary take, saying it’s a “dangerous presumption” for county party members to expect Haley voters to fall in line for Trump.
“He can’t afford any slippage with Republicans because this state is still leaning Democrat in voter registration,” said Lee, adding that Trump has lost some support and energy for his campaign in Pennsylvania since he entered politics eight years ago.
In the 2016 primary election, when Trump faced two opponents on the state’s ballot, he won about 892,000 votes. Four years later, challenged by two candidates as an incumbent, Trump secured about 1 million votes. On Tuesday, roughly 791,000 Republicans voted for Trump.
Lancaster County, with a heavily Republican-aligned voter base, hasn’t swung for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson won it in 1964.
But Lee stressed how narrow Pennsylvania’s past two presidential races have been — Trump won in 2016 by 44,000 votes and Biden won in 2020 by 82,000 votes — to stress that every vote matters during the presidential election.
“Local parties need to identify the Haley voters and make sure they know that skipping the election is a vote for Biden,” Lee said.
County Republican committee chair Kirk Radanovic did not respond to requests for comment.
Stella Sexton, vice chair of the county Democrats, said her party will knock on doors and call Republicans and independents to urge voters with strong views on contentious issues, like reproductive rights, to vote for Biden.
“They’re being driven from their party,” Sexton said. “Donald Trump has done nothing to win those voters back.”
The Biden campaign recently announced a six-figure ad campaign to target Haley voters in Pennsylvania, including a new TV ad, “If You Voted For Nikki Haley….”
READ: Economy, inflation could stir problems for Biden among Pa. voters, new F&M Poll finds
But Yost said Lancaster County Democrats should also worry about the 5.4% of their 28,860 voters who on Tuesday cast their ballots in favor of Minnesota Congressman Dean Philips, who also dropped out of the race on March 6, the day after the Super Tuesday primary.
“Frankly, both parties need to do something if they want to do well in November,” Yost said.
Biden also lost votes to a statewide activist campaign urging a cease-fire in the Gaza war to convince Democrats to write in “uncommitted” on their ballots.
With a total of 30,833 ballots cast in the Democratic primary, according to county elections director Christa Miller on Friday, 28,860 voted for either Biden (27,297) or Phillips (1,563).
That leaves 1,973 Democrats who either didn’t vote in the presidential primary at all or wrote in a candidate, meaning the share of dissenting Democrats in the county would be no higher than 6.3%.
GOP divide
Bowman said it isn’t necessarily Trump’s policies that compelled him to vote for Haley; it’s Trump’s harsh character and unrestricted behavior. In the fall, Bowman plans to vote for Biden.
“I just want to get the Republican Party back to where it should be,” Bowman said.
Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican political consultant who worked with former U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, said he’s seen many Republicans take issue with Trump’s character and some of his actions as president.
“Some Republicans have issues with Trump and his conduct,” Nicholas said. “There is obviously more work for Team Trump to do with their partisans.”
Michael Spangler, 72, of Rapho Twp., also voted for Haley, but he said he didn’t consider his vote a protest to Trump. He said the party’s voters need to unify if they hope to oust Biden.
“I will vote for the candidate that is Republican,” Spangler said. “Be that Trump, then yes."
